Today is 3 weeks to the day since Ireland voted No to the Lisbon Reform Treaty. By a margin of 53.6% to 46.4%, on a turnout of just over 53% of all registered voters, the measure was defeated. Immediately, European capitalist politicians began asking themselves why Ireland, the recipient of so much development aid and poster-child for the European project, rejected this treaty. While the standard answer is that the Irish people didn’t understand the Treaty, there are several much more pertinent and relevant answers, that draw uncomfortable conclusions for the political classes and their capitalist paymasters.
The main one is that this vote illuminated clearly for the first time in a while the class divide in society. A good example of this is the voting patterns of the various constituencies. Dublin South-West, a predominantly working class constituency, rejected the treaty by a margin of 65%, while Dun Laoghaire, a wealthy coastal constituency home to many of Irelands ‘great and good’, voted for the treaty by a margin of 63.5%. This, along with similar results in other constituencies on both sides of the class divide clearly shows that there is a clear gulf between the political and economic elites and the mass of ordinary people. This is unsurprising given the recent history of cuts in public services, especially health, implemented by the current Fianna Fail, Progressive Democrats and Green Party coalition, which have adversely affected the quality of life of many working class families, as well as the raft of allegations about the former Taoiseach, Mr. Bertie Ahern.
While it is true that this sign of a class divide is heartening for socialists, it must be remembered that the reason for voting against the treaty were purely cynicism and apathy about the role of the government. That is why Lisbon is not a tipping point for consciousness as some groups on the left (notably the Socialist Workers Party) seem to think it is, nor is it a sign that workers are seeking a new left alternative comparable to the WASG in Germany.
Pay talks between Union representatives and Employers representatives are ongoing at Government Buildings. The current round of talks is taking place against a backdrop of looming recession, the global ”Credit Crunch” and spiralling costs of living for many working class families. With further trouble ahead, and an emergency solution being sought to alleviate in particular the fishing and construction industries, the Social Partnership model has never been in stormy waters quite like these since its inauguration in 1987. For the uninitated, the Social Partnership model is a model of industrial conflict resolution, where representatives of the organised working class, i.e, the Union bureaucrats, try to sort out pay and condition issues by negotiations which generally occur every few years with IBEC (Irish Business and Employers Confederation) and the Government (generally composed of the tory Fianna Fail or Fine Gael parties) batting for the capitalist class. The basic idea is that both ordinary workers and the bosses have similar interests which can over-ride any problems such as low wages and poor conditions without the need to revert to strike action or factory occupation etc. Since its foundation, things have generally run smoothly for the Social Partners, as there is a lot of shared ground between the Union’s right wing bureaucratic leadership and the neo-liberal IBEC. Thanks to Social Partnernership, Irish wages have grown only 27% since the Celtic Tiger boom began, with MNC’s seeing their profits rise by a gargantuan 157%, while wages as a percentage of G.D.P have fallen from 60% to 47%, while profits have risen exponentially.
As i’ve tried to explain above, Social Partnership has been beneficial for those sitting around the conference table. IBEC have seen large increases in profit margin and a historically low level (until now at any rate) of class struggle by the Irish working-class. In return, the Union bureaucracy has secured its privileged position as one of the main pillars of the capitalist class, and are being well-rewarded individually with pay rates 4 to 5 times greater than those of ordinary workers. However, it seems as if now the whole process is about to become undone. Under immense pressure from its membership, many of whom are feeling the pinch of increased prices in fuel and basic foodstuffs, the Union leadership is beginning to strike a more militant tone. Demands from IBEC boss, Turlough O’Sullivan, that workers make ‘realistic’ wage demands, and that ‘wages must not keep pace with inflation’ have been met with cries of anger from the rank and file membership of the Unions. After all, despite all the rhetoric about ‘competitiveness’ and ‘wage restraint’, the average Irish industrial worker earns only 76% of the average wage in the EU15, 13th out of the EU15, despite being ranked 2nd for economic growth! The whole process is reaching its climax, and as things stand it will be a big loss for IBEC if the model of Social Partnership disintegrates. The Union leaders have stated that a pay-freeze is out of the question, as are increases below inflation.
One of the key questions now is what will happen if the talks break down? While that is unlikely given the craven track record of the current Union leadership, if talks broke down it would be a qualitative step in the right direction for those of us in the working class movement. Activists trying to reclaim the Unions, who are currently shackled by the seeming ‘efficiency’ of Partnership will gain a large boost in support, as their conclusions drawn about the whole shabby procedure will have been proven correct. It will be a serious setback for the Union bureaucrats, who will see their power weakened and their internal authority questioned. Finally, but not least important, it will mark a watershed in the class struggle in that elements in the working class leadership who had played roles which fettered workers struggle, i.e the Union tops, will have been challenged, and quite possibly stood aside. Still, with talks at such a delicate stage all speculation is useless.
